So the first roll is based on 24 possible combinations, as opposed to 36. We can ignore the 12 combinations, or 1/3 chance, of the player winning or losing immediately on the come out roll, because those events are not significant to the Fire Bet. The first step in this method is to calculate the probability of all 7 possible pertinent outcomes of a pass line bet after a point is established. This will either be time-consuming, redundant, and boring, or you can do it in a spreadsheet in an automated manner. Recursively work your way back to the starting point. For example, if the shooter needs a 4 only, then three things can happen: (1) He establishes and makes the 4, (2) He establishes and makes a point he already made, (3) He sevens out. Start with the states close to the end, in which the shooter already made 5 points. If you plan to try to recreate my work, here is some advice on going from one state to another.
